Of course different even conflicting analyses

It really something happening on the housing market. But what Professionals who, yesterday, had the morale to zero today forecast a recovery. Shattered by the violence of the crisis in the fall of 2008, they anticipated the worst and that is that they advertise in chorus rose. Of course, different, even conflicting analyses. Each is from his small verse, contrasting comments reproduced here and there make imperfectly into account the complex reality of the Park real estate, more than ever consisting of niche markets. Evidenced by the specialists who observe a decline in prices in Paris when others point out the continuation of the increase in values, including the new apartments, in the capital and its neighbouring municipalities served by the Metro.

Then, signs warning of crisis or simple incantations that the deceleration of the decline in prices of old dwellings recognized by REALTORS in cities or the rebound of sales in the nine, tax depreciation Scellier account

Should remain vigilant in a degraded economic climate. The decline of 30 of the volume of transactions on a year in late may, the decline of 32 of the number of building permits issued between the first and the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier do not to optimism. The only sector of the building might be, according to the French Federation of the building, between 25,000 and 30,000 deletions of posts. The majority of other economic activities penalizes them also with unemployment figures announced in strong rise by the end of the year. The recruitment of executives fell 27 last year.

This litany of bad news on the front of the employment, for special concern, does not alter the need for shelter. Demand remains strong due significant unmet needs. Does not the urgency of building 500,000 housing units per year including 60,000 in the capital region to catch up with the delays accumulated for several years This residential deficit estimated at the one million units in the hexagon is now aggravated by structural imbalances. Two examples: in the old transactions are frozen by the reluctance of obstinate sellers not to lower their prices to buyers who hope to see them give; "second-homebuyers", those who sell to reinvest, are difficult to lessees.

Yet, it seems that the major jurisdictions of market, credit and confidence, initiated a return. Analyses of the European Commission, OECD and the World Bank, anticipating the resumption current 2010, the sharp decline of interest rates of loans, from 5.4 to 4.1 over 20 years between October 2008 and may 2009 and thus restoring the 12 to additional real estate purchase to the purchasers, the decrease in housing prices in some cities and the behaviour of banksmore flexible to grant credit, while now in fine of the draconian conditions, are incentives. Known, of course, borrow it is plan for the future, but the doubling of the loan to zero rate, the land Pass which allows a purchase two times, the first frame, field then, social "shock absorbers" protection regimes and the uncertain future retreats can convince to become owner rather than remain tenant. Primo-homebuyers who had been out of the market are a credit to realize their project.

Other positive news: private investors returned to the housing through the Scellier device, which operates in full since February and would represent two-thirds of the sales of new homes. The tax gift of 25 of the value of the property to purchasers of housing for rental steep falls to revive the construction. Developers who were arrested in the fourth quarter 2008 to purchase land, put into sleep or waived transactions have more to offer and are working to reconstitute to boost rental housing programs including the market, now deserted by institutional investors, can not happen.

Sermons of the professionals easily prone to catastrophism, many households may differ ad vitam their need for shelter and the conditions of an acquisition. Hope that vendors do not benefit to increase their prices. Added to objective factors to a resumption of the housing sector is a major psychological factor to restore confidence: the repeated announcements of Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Jean-Claude Trichet of an out of the crisis next year. Not to mention that the stone remains a sure value in the context of erratic fluctuations of the stock market.